Skilled migrants worth £115bn to public finances, as settlement shake-up looms

Skilled migrants due to settle in the UK are expected to contribute £115bn more to public finances than they cost over their lifetimes, according to new analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research.

The think tank used the same method as Home Office analysis that put the net lifetime cost of care workers and their adult dependants at £10bn. IPPR says that figure, which has shaped debate on the government’s settlement reforms, tells only part of the story.

The findings come as home secretary Shabana Mahmood finalises plans for “earned settlement”. Under the proposals, many migrants would wait a default 10 or 15 years for indefinite leave to remain – the right to live in the UK permanently – rather than the current five. How long people wait would depend on factors including earnings and occupation.

The changes could also apply retrospectively. People already living and working in Britain, who arrived expecting to settle after five years, could see the goalposts moved. IPPR has previously estimated that around 1.35m people already on routes to settlement would be affected.

Care workers have been among the hardest hit. The original proposals, published in November 2025, set out a possible 15-year route for care workers and other roles below graduate level. Unison’s Fair Visa Campaign has fought the plans with lobbying, protests and a march on Westminster.

For Unison, the issue is not only about immigration policy but workplace justice. Speaking earlier this year, Unison general secretary Andrea Egan said: “Every day we hear from migrant workers trapped in a system that ties their visa to a single employer, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation and afraid to speak out. Many care workers are already juggling multiple jobs simply to make ends meet, as low pay struggles to keep pace with the cost of housing, transport, and childcare. These are workers who care for our communities, yet too many are being denied the security and dignity they deserve.”

IPPR says there are now signs that care workers will stay on the five-year route. It welcomed the move, saying it would protect one of the largest and most at-risk groups from exploitation.

The think tank wants a compromise for others already in the UK. That could mean keeping them on a five-year route or giving them an interim status after five years. This would offer a path to permanent residence and the freedom to change jobs without an employer’s sponsorship.

Marley Morris, associate director for migration, trade and communities at IPPR, said: “Public debate has focused heavily on the costs of recent migration, but this is not the whole story. Our analysis suggests that over their lifetimes skilled migrants are estimated to make a net contribution of billions to the public finances.”

He added: “Ministers should honour the rules people came here under or offer a fair compromise that gives them a secure pathway to settlement and freedom to change jobs after five years.”

A final decision on the reforms is expected soon.